Animal spirits get worse as India slowdown spills over to July

Economy


by Anirban Nag

A gauge measuring overall activity moved one notch toward weaker territory, as six of the eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg fell from the previous month. Car sales slumped the most in almost two decades and latest data showed infrastructure sector output grew at the slowest pace in more than four years.

The weakening came about a month before Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a slew of steps to revive Asia’s third-largest economy. While the measures boosted market sentiment, they are expected to fall short of spurring growth.

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The dashboard measures “animal spirits” – a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action – and uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month readings.

Here are the details of the dashboard:


Business Activity


After contracting in June, India’s purchasing managers index for services rebounded into growth territory in July. The index rose to 53.8 from 49.6 in June, with the upturn in business activity linked to the budget presented in early July and improved work orders. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Manufacturing activity also picked up, a separate PMI survey showed, pushing the composite index to an eight-month high of 53.9 in July from 50.8 in June.

Input cost inflation was muted, with only a negligible proportion of companies increasing selling prices in July. That should give the central bank enough leeway to pursue an easy monetary policy bias in the coming months, after having lowered benchmark rates by 110 basis points so far this year.

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Exports

Merchandise exports grew in July from a year ago following a contraction in June. Still, the pace of exports growth was modest, dampened by a decline in gems and jewelry and engineering goods, and the outlook is clouded by a gloomy global economic picture and rising U.S.-China trade tensions.

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Consumer Activity

Consumer spending showed continued signs of stress. Car sales fell 36% from a year earlier to 122,956 units in July, the most since December 2000, data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed. Passenger vehicle sales slumped 31%, while truck and bus sales fell 26%.

Weak sales are forcing manufacturers to cut production or shutter factories temporarily, leading to at least 15,000 job losses in the industry so far, Vishnu Mathur, the director general of Siam, said.

The prospect of job losses and slowing growth saw consumer confidence drop further in July, according to a survey by the central bank. Consumption, which contributes nearly 60% to gross domestic product, has been largely hurt by a shadow banking crisis, and that in turn has dragged growth down to a five-year low.

Data due Friday will probably show India’s gross domestic product expanded 5.7% in the quarter ended June, slower than the 5.8% pace seen in the previous three months.

Sluggish consumer spending and tardy investment is keeping demand for bank loans in check. Overall credit growth was pegged at 12.2% in July, down from 14.2% at the beginning of April, according to central bank data.

The Citi India Financial Conditions Index, a liquidity indicator, showed overall conditions were improving in July after remaining fairly tight in April, May and the early part of June.

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Industrial Activity

India’s core infrastructure industries’ output, which constitutes 40% of total industrial production, rose 0.2% in June from a year earlier. That was the slowest pace of expansion in more than four years, as four of the eight components – crude oil, natural gas, refinery products and cement – contracted.

Industrial output growth eased to 2% in June from 4.6% in May, with production of consumer durables and capital goods weighing down activity. Both the numbers are reported with a one month lag.



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