“After after considering recovery rate achieved in the initial months of the current season, standing sugarcane in the fields and likely diversion of sucrose for production of ethanol from B-heavy molasses and considering the reports of our agro-economists, our crop committee has estimated production at 29.9 million metric tonnes (MMT) of sugar against last sugar season’s sugar production of 27.40 mmt,” a note from AISTA said.
AISTA has estimated that the sugar production of Maharashtra will increase to 10.2 MMT from 6.20 MMT in the previous year (up by 64.5%), while sugar production of Uttar Pradesh is expected to decline to 10.5 MMT from 12.60 MMT (down by 16.6%) in the previous year. Sugar production of Karnataka is expected to increase by 25.6%.
“It is estimated that about 2 million tonnes of sucrose would get sacrificed in the current sugar season due to production of ethanol from B-heavy molasses and sugarcane juice. The above estimates of 29.9 million tons of sugar production excludes such adjustment,” said AISTA.
“The sugarcane crop has been partially infected with the red rot disease in the part of eastern UP and Bihar, as such the production of sugarcane in this region has been adversely impacted. The sugar production in this region is likely to be lower.
Due to lower production of sugarcane, it is expected that all sugar factories in the area would close by the end of February,” it added.
The Committee estimated export of sugar in the current sugar season to be around 4.3 MMT. “The exports are likely to be less than last year due to the logistics constraints; shortage of containers and large movement of grains including soyabean leading to congestion at the ports and increase in the waiting time. Further, the chances of export of sugar to Iran are bleak, as the INR balances in the Vostro accounts held by Iranian Banks with UCO Bank and IDBI Bank have been nearly drawn down. This assessment is based on the current situation,” said AISTA.